Evidence

Evidence & Supporting Data: The Carney Administration (2025–2026)

This document outlines the concrete statistics, dates, and reporting that substantiate the policy failures and unfulfilled promises of Mark Carney’s tenure as Prime Minister of Canada (March 2025 – August 2026).

1. Economic & Fiscal Evidence (The Deficit & Cost of Living)

• The Deficit Numbers: While Carney campaigned on fiscal discipline, the federal government recorded a deficit of $55.28 billion for the 2025–26 fiscal year, according to the Finance Department’s monthly fiscal monitor. (The Parliamentary Budget Officer, PBO, had projected it could reach as high as $72.0 billion in its June 2026 outlook).
• General Government Deficit: In just the first quarter of 2026, the general government recorded a deficit of $16.4 billion (Statistics Canada).
• Cost of Living Persists: In an attempt to address ongoing public outcry over high living costs, the government was forced to implement a drastic, temporary suspension of the federal fuel excise tax on gasoline and diesel from April 2026 to September 2026.

2. Housing Shortfall Data (CMHC)

• Missed Construction Targets: Carney promised to double the pace of residential construction. Instead, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) data for July 2026 revealed that actual monthly housing starts were down 19% year-over-year.
• Year-to-Date Contraction: As of July 2026, the total year-to-date housing starts stood at 131,851 units, representing a 4% decrease compared to the same period in 2025.
• Public Sentiment: An April 2026 poll by the Angus Reid Institute found that 67% of Canadians felt the government had fallen short of its housing expectations.
• Localized Subsidies: The government announced a massive $2.7 billion investment specifically to support rental construction in Toronto in August 2026, but CMHC noted that fewer projects were being started in major markets overall.

3. Trade and International Relations Data

• Trade Negotiations Timeline: The highly anticipated bilateral trade negotiations with the United States officially collapsed in August 2026, failing to meet the hard deadline set by the U.S. administration.
• Tariff Implementations: Following the collapse, the U.S. imposed tariffs on Canadian goods. Prime Minister Carney was recorded stating the U.S. terms were “uneconomic” and “unfair,” and pledged a “dollar for dollar” retaliatory response, confirming the trade war.
• Foreign Aid Budget: Budget 2025 (tabled November 2025) included cuts to Canada’s international assistance funding, drawing immediate criticism from advocacy groups like ONE.org.

4. Healthcare Funding Reductions

• Federal Cuts: Budget 2025 was criticized by the Health Coalition for including “deepening cuts” to federal health-related agencies, rather than providing the sweeping expansion of universal healthcare promised during the campaign.
• Pharmacare Silence: Budget 2025 did not contain long-term funding frameworks required to fulfill the promise of expanding universal pharmacare.

5. Climate Policy Record

• The Emissions Cap Timeline:
  • Early 2025: The administration commits to keeping the oil and gas emissions cap.
  • October 2025: Carney shifts his stance publicly, stating the fate of the cap “depends” on other efforts and emphasizing “results, not objectives.”
  • June 2026: Carney admits publicly that Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions will be higher over the “next few years” than previously projected.
  • June 2026: Carney characterizes the previous government’s climate plan as “not sustainable over the long term,” completing the rollback of prior climate targets to focus on LNG and nuclear energy expansion.